Fraunhofer Institute for Energy Economics and Energy System TechnologyProMetheUs - Probabilistic methods for safe grid operation planning under uncertainties
The overall aim of the ProMetheUs project is to overcome the challenges in the operation of transmission grids as a result of the energy transition and the massive expansion of renewable energies. The rising share of renewable energies and the increasing complexity of the electricity system are creating uncertainties in grid operation, which can complicate planning processes and impair the security of the grids without suitable countermeasures. At the same time, there is a need to better integrate the expansion of renewable energies into the grids by increasing the utilization of existing grid operating resources.
As part of the overall project, a paradigm shift from deterministic to probabilistic approaches in grid operation is to take place. The focus is on minimizing uncertainties and the resulting risks in the selection of congestion elimination measures through stochastic optimization in order to enable a higher utilization of the networks while ensuring safety and reliability.
A key component of the sub-project is the development and application of probabilistic methods for forecasting power flows and determining grid utilization using probabilistic grid calculations. This should enable grid operators to take forward-looking and targeted measures to eliminate bottlenecks that cannot be identified using deterministic methods.
However, the introduction of probabilistic methods faces technical and procedural hurdles. These need to be overcome and practical solutions developed. As part of a field test, the practicability of these methods will be tested and a roadmap for implementation will be developed.
