Fraunhofer Institute for Energy Economics and Energy System TechnologySeasonal climate and energy forecasts for a secure, sustainable and efficient energy supply
Society is currently experiencing how difficult it is to estimate the security of supply over the winter months. A combination of a shortage of natural gas and uncertainty in electricity generation and consumption increases the value of a long-term forecast. This would enable energy suppliers and grid operators to better estimate the expected contribution from wind and photovoltaics and thus plan for the longer term. The main focus here is on the grid reserve requirements for the winter and the special analyses for the winter to clarify the power balance and grid security. In this project, seasonal climate and energy forecasts are developed for the system analysis and made available to the general public. These can be used to estimate the expected generation of wind energy and photovoltaics over a period of 6 months.
In this project, the DWD is developing climate forecasts adapted for the energy industry, which are optimally suited for use in the energy industry thanks to a higher spatial and temporal resolution, the combination of several climate forecasts and the consideration of weather patterns through teleconnections.
Building on these improvements, the Fraunhofer IEE produces seasonal energy forecasts. In this context, hybrid methods are also being developed that consist of large-scale forecasts and information from teleconnections. The aim is also to estimate the risk of dark doldrums, which pose a particular threat to security of supply. The results are made available to the public if the quality of the forecasts is proven.
